Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jonathan David: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Oswin Appollis: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Oswin Appollis: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Oswin Appollis: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ali Ahmed: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Promise David: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Promise David: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Promise David: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Promise David: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Promise David: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Promise David: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Promise David: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Owen Goodman: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Owen Goodman: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Owen Goodman: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Owen Goodman: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Ricardo Goss: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Ricardo Goss: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Ricardo Goss: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Ricardo Goss: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cyle Larin: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Jonathan David: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Oswin Appollis: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tajon Buchanan: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Ali Ahmed: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Relebohile Mofokeng: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Teboho Mokoena: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Liam Millar: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathan Saliba: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thapelo Maseko: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
On 28 June 2026, South Africa and Canada will meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32, a knockout fixture where Canada enters as the clear favourite with implied odds of roughly 78% to win[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a South Africa victory reflects this stark disparity, mirroring historical knockout patterns where lower-ranked teams rarely overturn top-tier opponents without extraordinary circumstances[2]. Comparable cases from recent World Cup knockouts show that when a team like Canada holds such a dominant moneyline, the market typically prices the underdog’s win at near-zero, especially when the spread favours the stronger side by half a goal or more[2].
Traders should monitor DraftKings’ new inclusion of player props covering extra time, a dependency that could shift book depth as liquidity flows into goalscorer markets like Promise David’s one-plus goal or assist[3]. Recent analysis highlights Jonathan David and Promise David as key catalysts, with both showing strong form in prior matches against Bosnia and Herzegovina[3][4]. The settlement window ending 2026-06-28T19:00:00Z means any late tactical announcements or injury updates before the 3:00 PM ET kickoff will directly impact prop pricing, particularly for markets tied to extra time outcomes[3]. As funding rails such as Klarna and SEPA facilitate deposits, the traction of this market correlates with the volume of capital moving into these high-liquidity player props, reinforcing the book’s depth around Canada’s dominance[6].
Methodology
This page compares South Africa vs. Canada - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade South Africa vs. Canada - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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