Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 78% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 65% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Gatito Fernández: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ shots | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Álex Arce: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Álex Arce: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Álex Arce: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
France and Paraguay meet today at 5:00 p.m. ET in Philadelphia for a FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash, with France entering as a dominant -550 favourite after a flawless 3-0 start. The crowd-implied 5% probability for Paraguay-related player props reflects the stark reality that France is an astounding -2000 favourite to advance, while Paraguay sits at +850 to find a way through.
Historically, such lopsided odds in knockout football have framed player prop markets where the underperforming side rarely generates traction unless the favourite collapses early. Comparable cases from previous World Cups show that when a team like France holds a -550 moneyline, player props for the opponent often see minimal book depth until the match outcome becomes uncertain, mirroring the current 5% sentiment where funding flows remain skewed toward French dominance.
Traders should watch for Mbappe’s goal tally, as his 18 World Cup goals now sit just one behind Messi’s record of 19, a dependency that could drive prop volatility if he scores early. Recent analysis from Action Network highlights France to win both halves as a key pick, suggesting the catalyst for prop traction lies in whether France’s early pressure translates into a multi-goal margin, which would further suppress Paraguay-related liquidity.
Methodology
This page compares Paraguay vs. France - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
Trade Paraguay vs. France - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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