Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
13% | 87% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
13% | 87% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Norway 1 - 1 England | 13% |
| Norway 1 - 2 England | 11% |
| Norway 0 - 1 England | 10% |
| Any Other Score | 10% |
| Norway 0 - 2 England | 9% |
| Norway 2 - 1 England | 7% |
| Norway 2 - 2 England | 7% |
| Norway 0 - 0 England | 6% |
| Norway 1 - 0 England | 6% |
| Norway 1 - 3 England | 6% |
| Norway 0 - 3 England | 5% |
| Norway 2 - 0 England | 3% |
| Norway 2 - 3 England | 3% |
| Norway 3 - 1 England | 2% |
| Norway 3 - 2 England | 2% |
| Norway 3 - 3 England | 2% |
| Norway 3 - 0 England | 1% |
Market context
On 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Norway and England will face off in the FIFA World Cup quarter-final at Miami Stadium, with the market resolving on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation. The current crowd-implied probability of 6% for a specific outcome reflects the tightness of a match where both sides have scored and conceded in all five of their World Cup 2026 games so far[1]. Historically, Norway’s deepest run ever—reaching the quarter-finals after a 28-year absence—frames this as a high-variance encounter, comparable to past knockout ties where underdogs like Norway have won two consecutive knockout matches against elite teams[3][9]. England’s recent 1-0 victory over Mexico, secured by a Wayne Rooney penalty, suggests they can grind out narrow wins, yet Norway’s perfect qualifying record (37 goals in 8 games) indicates they are equally capable of explosive scoring[7].
Traders should monitor team news and Haaland’s fitness, as his recent two-goal performance against Mexico has already drawn FIFA’s financial scrutiny ahead of this clash[8]. The match’s traction is directly tied to funding flows: deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails, plus USDC withdrawal efficiency, determines book depth, with higher liquidity correlating to tighter spreads on exact-score outcomes. Recent previews confirm Norway stands one win from an unprecedented semi-final, while England aims to return to the last four, making pre-match announcements on starting lineups critical catalysts[5]. As settlement ends on 2026-07-11, any postponement will keep the market open, but cancellation with no make-up game would void it entirely, underscoring the dependency on FIFA’s scheduling finality.
Methodology
This page compares Norway vs. England - Exact Score with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Norway vs. England - Exact Score on Polymarket Klarna UK
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