Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices the likelihood of additional markets opening for this fixture at 5%, implying strong confidence that the current book will remain the sole offering. Settlement occurs after the match concludes on 14 June at 01:00 UTC.

Historical precedent suggests qualifier matches between lower-ranked confederations attract minimal secondary market creation. Haiti (currently ranked 93rd by FIFA) versus Scotland (40th) represents a fixture with modest global betting interest, particularly outside European and Caribbean markets. When comparable CONCACAF–UEFA qualifiers have traded on prediction platforms, liquidity has concentrated on primary outcomes rather than spawning supplementary markets. The 5% probability reflects this pattern: platform operators typically deploy additional markets only when initial volume and deposit flows signal sufficient trader demand to justify operational overhead.

Deposit infrastructure and withdrawal rails directly influence whether secondary markets materialise. Platforms offering Klarna instalment payments and SEPA transfers tend to see higher participation from European traders, potentially expanding the addressable market for this fixture. However, the settlement window's tight closure—just four hours after kickoff—creates friction for traders seeking to enter positions after live action begins. Monitoring early deposit velocity through 12 June will signal whether book depth justifies market expansion; sustained USDC on-ramp activity would be the strongest indicator that operators are preparing additional offerings before the match.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.