Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 59% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 21% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Market context
The FIFA World Cup third-place match between France and England kicks off at Miami Stadium on 18 July, with betting markets heavily favouring Les Bleus to win. France are listed at 10/11 across major UK bookmakers, while England sit at 29/10, reflecting a clear gap in perceived strength despite the tightness of the fixture [11][10]. The 45% crowd-implied probability for the featured player prop aligns with historical trends where top-tier contenders dominate individual performance markets, as usage, role and expected minutes heavily dictate pricing [8][9].
Historically, World Cup player props for elite sides like France and England show that favourites consistently outperform in goals, assists and shots on target, mirroring the “Short Price” rule where winners since 2002 closed at +1200 or shorter pre-tournament [6]. Comparable third-place clashes in recent tournaments saw the favoured nation’s key attackers generate 60–70% of total prop volume, with market depth tracking funding inflows rather than pure sentiment. This pattern suggests the current 45% YES probability is a function of capital concentration, not just form.
Traders should monitor final squad announcements and expected minutes for France’s leading attackers, as live betting can rapidly shift player prop value once lineups are confirmed [8]. A recent report notes that a France vs England final is the most likely World Cup outcome at 35%, reinforcing the high-stakes context for individual stats [3]. Deposit friction via Klarna, SEPA or USDC directly influences book depth; smoother on-ramps correlate with tighter spreads and higher liquidity in these prop markets, making payment rails a critical variable for price efficiency.
Methodology
This page compares France vs. England - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade France vs. England - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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