Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 99% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 70% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 68% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 64% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 52% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 52% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 34% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 15% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 10% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 3% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash between Switzerland and Colombia takes place on Tuesday, 7 July 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, with Colombia favoured to advance after a tournament defined by defensive resilience. Both squads entered the knockout stage unbeaten, yet Colombia’s single conceded goal contrasts with Switzerland’s disciplined structure, creating a tight contest where the crowd-implied 20% probability for a specific player prop reflects the market’s caution on goal-scoring volatility in low-total games.
Historical precedents from previous World Cup knockout rounds show that matches between defensively organised teams with similar unbeaten records often settle under 2.5 goals, with player props on anytime scorers carrying elevated risk unless a key attacker like Luis Díaz finds space early. FanDuel and DraftKings models both flag Colombia as the narrow favourite, yet the tight tie suggests that player-specific outcomes hinge on isolated moments rather than sustained pressure, mirroring patterns where under 2.5 goals markets dominate such fixtures[1][2].
Traders should monitor pre-match lineups for Díaz’s starting status and any late tactical shifts favouring a compact midfield, as these dependencies directly impact book depth and funding flows from deposit rails like SEPA and USDC. Recent analysis from Action Network highlights the under 2.5 goals pick as the strongest bet, reinforcing that player prop traction correlates with capital moving through payment on-ramps tied to Klarna and SEPA withdrawals, where lower volatility drives higher liquidity[6]. Any announcement regarding Díaz’s fitness or Colombia’s attacking shape will be the primary catalyst for prop market movement before the settlement window closes on 7 July 2026 at 20:00:00Z.
Methodology
This page compares Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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