Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Colombia O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Switzerland O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score | 48% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Team to Advance | 39% |
| Colombia O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 29% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| Switzerland O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Colombia (-1.5) | 20% |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 16% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 16% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Colombia O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 9% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Colombia (-2.5) | 7% |
| Switzerland O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 2% |
| Colombia (-3.5) | 2% |
| Colombia (-4.5) | 2% |
| Switzerland (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Switzerland (-4.5) | 0% |
| Switzerland (-5.5) | 0% |
| Colombia (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
On Monday, 7 July 2026, Colombia and Switzerland will face off in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at BC Place in Vancouver, with kickoff set for 4 p.m. ET. The winner advances to the quarterfinals, where they will meet either Argentina or Egypt. This match carries immense emotional weight as both nations seek to extend their tournament journey, with Colombia riding momentum from a hard-fought victory over Ghana and Switzerland having built one of the most organised and disciplined sides in the competition[1][3].
Historically, Round of 16 clashes between evenly matched European and South American teams often settle with low probabilities for the underdog, mirroring the current 9% crowd-implied chance for a Colombia win. Comparable cases from recent World Cups show that when defensive organisation meets attacking flair in neutral venues, markets frequently underprice the more disciplined side, suggesting the 9% figure may reflect caution rather than pure skill assessment[10]. Traders should note that past tournaments with similar team profiles saw final probabilities shift only after late squad announcements or weather dependencies, not pre-match hype.
Key catalysts include final line-up confirmations expected by 6 July and any last-minute injury reports from either squad, which could alter book depth significantly. Recent coverage from ESPN highlights that Colombia’s midfield stability and Switzerland’s tactical discipline are the primary variables influencing odds, with any shift in player availability likely to trigger immediate liquidity flows[2]. For traders using Klarna, SEPA, or USDC rails, monitor how deposit volumes correlate with these announcements, as funding inflows often precede sharp probability adjustments in the final hours before the settlement window closes on 7 July at 20:00 UTC[6].
Methodology
This page compares Switzerland vs. Colombia - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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