Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The FIFA Men’s World Cup round-of-16 clash between Brazil and Norway kicks off at 4:00 PM ET in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with Brazil favoured to win in regulation at -125 and to advance at -270[1][2]. Norway, despite holding Erling Haaland, sits at +360 on the moneyline and +210 to qualify, reflecting their status as clear underdogs in a high-stakes knockout tie[2][8].
Historically, similar World Cup matchups between a top-tier South American side and a European team with a star striker have produced volatile player-prop markets, often swinging on early goals or defensive errors[3][6]. In past rounds where Haaland faced elite defences, his anytime goalscorer odds tightened sharply pre-match, mirroring today’s 17% crowd-implied probability for Norway-related player props—a figure that aligns with comparable upset scenarios where the underdog’s star outperforms expectations[2][5].
Traders should monitor Haaland’s shot volume and Vinícius Júnior’s fouls, as both are key catalysts for prop settlement[2][4]. Recent analysis from SportsLine experts highlights Haaland at +115 for anytime goals and Vinícius at +125, with both teams to score priced at -172, suggesting a high-probability goal market that could drive liquidity[2][8]. As deposit rails via Klarna and SEPA see increased uptake ahead of the match, funding flows into these player props will directly influence book depth and price efficiency[1][10].
Methodology
This page compares Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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