Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A friendly international football match between the Republic of Ireland and Qatar is scheduled for 28 May 2026. The current market probability sits at 100%, reflecting near-certainty among traders that the fixture will occur as planned. Settlement hinges on the match taking place within the specified window; cancellation, postponement beyond the deadline, or official withdrawal by either federation would trigger a NO resolution.

Historical precedent suggests friendly internationals rarely cancel outright once scheduled three months in advance. UEFA and FIFA-sanctioned friendlies have weathered geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions, and squad availability issues without abandonment in recent cycles. The 2022–2024 fixture calendar saw only isolated postponements tied to major domestic competition clashes or acute security concerns—neither factor currently applies to an Ireland–Qatar pairing. The 100% probability reflects this structural reliability rather than certainty of outcome.

Traders monitoring this market should track FIFA's official fixture calendar and both federations' squad announcements in April and early May 2026. Any injury crisis affecting either team's preparation, fixture congestion in domestic leagues, or unexpected diplomatic developments could prompt rescheduling discussions, though such moves typically occur weeks before kickoff. Deposit flows via Klarna and SEPA transfers tend to spike when major tournament windows approach; this friendly sits outside peak betting periods, meaning book depth may remain thin relative to concurrent Euro 2026 qualifying markets. Withdrawal liquidity on USDC rails should remain stable given the short settlement window and low volatility expected.

Methodology

We track Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.