Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 61% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 57% |
| Ends in Daytime | 56% |
| Ends in Daytime | 56% |
| Ends in Daytime | 56% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 56% |
| Any Player Rampage | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 35% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 33% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 33% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 23% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 23% |
| Game 2 Winner | 22% |
| Game 1 Winner | 21% |
| Match Winner | 14% |
| Any Player Rampage | 14% |
| Any Player Rampage | 14% |
Market context
Team Resilience face Team Yandex in a best-of-three Dota 2 fixture during The International's group stage on 14 August 2026. The 21% implied probability reflects market confidence in Team Yandex as favourites, though the settlement window extends to 15 August at 08:00 UTC to accommodate potential scheduling shifts within the tournament's official calendar. Postponement provisions allow rescheduling through 28 August, a buffer that matters for liquidity—traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers need certainty on match timing to manage position duration and withdrawal cycles.
Historical International group-stage matchups between regional underdogs and established squads show that 21% odds typically undervalue teams with strong mid-game coordination. Team Resilience's prior performances in qualifier circuits suggest comparable depth to mid-tier International participants, yet the market's current skew towards Yandex reflects either superior recent scrim data or booking imbalances where larger European deposits (SEPA-settled) have weighted the book. Comparable BO3 fixtures at prior Internationals with similar skill gaps settled within 55–65% ranges for the favoured side, implying potential value at current levels if Resilience's draft flexibility holds.
Tournament schedules and roster confirmations remain critical catalysts. Any last-minute stand-in announcements or visa delays affecting either squad could trigger postponement clauses, forcing traders to manage open positions across the extended August window. Withdrawal rails—particularly USDC settlement for rapid exit or Klarna's deferred payment for entry—become operationally relevant if match timing slips, as book depth often thins during rescheduled fixtures.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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