Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-9.5) vs NIP (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Ninjas in Pyjamas and 100 Thieves are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three at StarLadder StarSeries Group D, with the market set to resolve on the match outcome rather than map count or margin. The crowd-implied 0% YES price signals that the current market expects the fixture not to deliver a standard, settled result for NIP, which is consistent with a market still anchored to event execution risk as much as team strength.
The closest recent comparable meeting in April ended 2-0 to NIP, and bookmakers also made NIP the narrower pre-match favourite in a February series, so the head-to-head record has not been one-sided enough to justify a near-zero view on sporting merit alone.[2][1] That makes the 0% reading more plausibly about settlement mechanics and participation uncertainty than about a firm expectation that 100 Thieves are dominant.
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the match is confirmed in the published schedule, whether either side posts roster or travel changes, and whether the event stays on track to begin and finish within the settlement window. The main practical flow here is funding: markets on esports often deepen only when deposits are easy and cheap, so changes in on-ramp convenience, card acceptance, SEPA timing, or USDC rail usage can matter more than in-play statistics for whether fresh liquidity arrives before lock.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group D with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadde… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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