Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 99% |
| Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 60% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 43% |
| Map 2 Winner | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 41% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 22% |
| Match Winner | 20% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 5% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Gentle Mates are facing paiN in a best-of-three Round of 32 match in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, with the crowd currently pricing Gentle Mates at about 80% to win. That is a much stronger market signal than the independent previews, which lean the other way: one model-backed write-up puts paiN around 65% and Gentle Mates around 35%, while another betting line has paiN as the favourite at 56% and a separate preview calls a 2–1 for paiN[1][4][5].
For context, this is the sort of CS2 book where the price often reflects who can actually get money into the market quickly rather than just pure team quality. Short notice qualifier matches tend to attract thinner depth until deposits clear, and on-ramp friction matters: card-like rails such as Klarna, bank transfer via SEPA, and faster settlement in USDC can all change how fast liquidity appears and how far a price can move once schedules are confirmed. The reported $331 volume on this market suggests it is still relatively small, so early flow from a few funded accounts can push the implied probability away from model consensus[3].
The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match starts on time, whether the BLAST schedule changes, and whether either side is forced into a roster or server-side adjustment that traders can react to before the series begins. The market is scheduled around 23 July at 11:00 ET, and the resolution rules matter because a cancellation or a delay beyond seven days would not pay out on the match result at all, but would instead settle 50-50[2].
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST B… on Polymarket Klarna UK
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