Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
52% | 48% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
52% | 48% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 41% |
| Map 2 Winner | 36% |
| Map 1 Winner | 27% |
| Match Winner | 25% |
Market context
Infinite versus 100 Thieves is a best-of-three Counter-Strike play-in for the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier, with the winner moving towards the main event pathway and the loser dropping out of that route. The market has attracted meaningful liquidity already, with roughly $44,000 in volume on Polymarket, which matters because these books tend to deepen once funding is in place through familiar rails such as card deposits, SEPA transfers, and USDC top-ups.
The current implied price of **27%** for Infinite is consistent with a market that sees 100 Thieves as the stronger side, but not by a margin large enough to price out upset risk entirely. Comparable CS2 qualifier markets often hinge on roster stability, recent series form, and whether the underdog can force a long map or an early veto edge; here, third-party price screens have also shown 100 Thieves as a clear favourite, while community vote shares have been even more lopsided than the market line.[10][12][13] That gap is typical when newer money enters through low-friction payment methods and the order book is still thickening.
For traders, the main catalysts are simple but time-sensitive: confirmation that the match starts on schedule, any late bracket reshuffle, and whether the listed bo3 is played in full before the settlement window closes. The qualifier itself is running from 7–9 August and feeds the Esports World Cup main event, so any disruption to the play-in timetable can move prices quickly if participants or organisers post schedule updates.[3][8] Watch the funding side as well: sharper moves often follow fresh deposits, especially when users can move cash in via Klarna-linked card flow, SEPA, or USDC without much delay, because that is when depth is most likely to improve.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: Infinite vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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