Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges | 97% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 Winner | 92% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 Winner | 85% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 82% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: jannik sinner vs nuno borges. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Nuno Borges in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page compares Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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