Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche | 83% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 Winner | 77% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 Winner | 76% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 61% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Match O/U 21.5 | 47% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 47% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Match O/U 22.5 | 40% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 36% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche Match O/U 23.5 | 34% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche. This market refers to the tennis match between Andrey Rublev and Luca Van Assche in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' …
Methodology
This page compares Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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