Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas | 65% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 Winner | 64% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 21.5 | 61% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 Winner | 54% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Match O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 39% |
| Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 65% YES probability for Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas. This market refers to the tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Vilius Gaubas in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de Jong' …
Methodology
This page compares Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Vilius Gaubas on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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