Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri in the Cervia, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Max Alcala Gurri. This market will resolve to 'Max Alcala Gurri' if Max Alcala Gurri advances against Andrea Guerrieri. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined,
Methodology
We track Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri on PolyGram
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