Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Murkel Dellien of Bolivia and Daniel Galan of Colombia are scheduled to meet in the Todi tournament on 10 August 2026. The match carries a settlement deadline of 17 August; any result determined after that date, or any cancellation without completion, triggers a 50-50 split. The 0% crowd probability reflects either minimal trading volume or a technical lag in the odds feed, common for lower-tier ATP Challenger events where liquidity concentrates only after draw confirmation and injury updates surface.
Dellien and Galan have competed in South American clay circuits where their records diverge sharply by surface and altitude. Dellien holds a slight career edge in head-to-head meetings, though Galan's recent form on European clay—particularly his runs at lower-ranked tournaments—suggests momentum may favour the Colombian. Historical Challenger draws at Todi show that seeding often reflects recent ranking points rather than true surface aptitude, so traders should cross-reference both players' results from the past six weeks on clay before committing capital.
The critical catalyst is the official draw release, typically published 48 hours before play. Watch for late withdrawals or injury declarations; both players have histories of managing minor soft-tissue issues during the summer clay swing. Deposit and withdrawal rails—SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, and USDC settlement—remain available throughout the settlement window, but traders should confirm their funding method before the match begins, as post-match liquidity can tighten rapidly on Challenger markets with low initial depth.
Methodology
This page compares Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade Todi: Murkel Dellien vs Daniel Galan on Polymarket Klarna UK
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