Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 70% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Match O/U 36.5 | 61% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Match O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Match O/U 40.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 1 Winner | 45% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 45% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 44% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 3 Winner | 44% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 2 Winner | 43% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic | 38% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 25% |
Market context
Market consensus: 70% chance of wimbledon atp: felix auger-aliassime vs novak djokovic. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page compares Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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