PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 The Open Championship will crown the golfer who claims the Claret Jug at Royal Troon, with Scottie Scheffler currently the market favourite to defend his 2025 title. Prediction markets assign him an 11% chance of victory, slightly lower than traditional sportsbooks which price him at roughly 25% [1][2]. This divergence between prediction market implied probability and bookmaker odds mirrors patterns seen in the 2024 US Open, where liquidity constraints and deposit friction on crypto-only platforms initially suppressed favourite prices before on-ramp improvements like SEPA and Klarna widened the book depth and aligned probabilities with conventional markets [1].

Traders should monitor Scheffler’s entry confirmation and the tournament schedule, as elimination under official PGA Tour rules triggers an immediate “No” resolution for listed players [1]. Recent betting analysis confirms Scheffler remains the top pick at 4/1 with BetVictor, while Rory McIlroy holds second favourite status at 13/2 via Bet365, suggesting strong external consensus despite the lower prediction market price [3]. The settlement window closes on 19 July 2026, and any tie will resolve per official PGA Tour winner determination rules [1].

Funding flows via Klarna and USDC rails directly influence book depth; when deposit friction drops, probability spreads tighten toward sportsbook levels. The current 11% YES price for Scheffler reflects a market still adjusting to on-ramp efficiency, with deeper liquidity likely as SEPA and Klarna adoption grows among UK traders. Unlisted winners resolve this market to “Other”, while ties follow official tournament rules [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page compares PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.