Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
9% | 91% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
9% | 91% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 9% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 2% |
| Chris Gotterup | 2% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2% |
| Viktor Hovland | 2% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 2% |
| Angel Ayora | 1% |
| Bud Cauley | 1% |
| Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra | 1% |
| Eric Cole | 1% |
| Pierceson Coody | 1% |
| Harris English | 1% |
| Ryan Fox | 1% |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% |
| Doug Ghim | 1% |
| Max Greyserman | 1% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1% |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% |
| Tom Kim | 1% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% |
| Jake Knapp | 1% |
| Min Woo Lee | 1% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 1% |
| Shane Lowry | 1% |
| Alexander Noren | 1% |
| Zach Bauchou | 0% |
| Dan Bradbury | 0% |
| Daniel Brown | 0% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% |
| Laurie Canter | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Seungbin Choi | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Martin Couvra | 0% |
| Cam Davis | 0% |
| Alejandro Del Ray | 0% |
| Hendrik Du Plessis | 0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% |
| Nacho Elvira | 0% |
| Ewen Ferguson | 0% |
| Grant Forrest | 0% |
| Dylan Frittelli | 0% |
| Julien Guerrier | 0% |
| Jordan Gumberg | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Pádraig Harrington | 0% |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0% |
| Joe Highsmith | 0% |
| Calum Hill | 0% |
| Daniel Hillier | 0% |
| Charley Hoffman | 0% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0% |
| Billy Horschel | 0% |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 0% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Scott Jamieson | 0% |
| Casey Jarvis | 0% |
| Ryggs Johnston | 0% |
| Kota Yuta Kaneko | 0% |
| Yuto Katsuragawa | 0% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0% |
| Baekjun Kim | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Chris Kirk | 0% |
| Brooks Koepka | 0% |
| Jacques Kruyswijk | 0% |
| Frederic Lacroix | 0% |
| Joakim Lagergren | 0% |
| Pablo Larrazábal | 0% |
| Thriston Lawrence | 0% |
| Junghwan Lee | 0% |
| Mikael Lindberg | 0% |
| Joost Luiten | 0% |
| Matteo Manassero | 0% |
| Richard Mansell | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Tom McKibbin | 0% |
| Mac Meissner | 0% |
| Adrian Meronk | 0% |
| Guido Migliozzi | 0% |
| Francesco Molinari | 0% |
| Taylor Moore | 0% |
| Dylan Naidoo | 0% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 0% |
| Shaun Norris | 0% |
| Andrew Novak | 0% |
| Tae-Hoon Ok | 0% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0% |
| Adrián Otaegui | 0% |
| John Parry | 0% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The 2026 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club is set to crown its winner this week, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leading the pre-tournament odds as the man to beat regardless of time zone or field strength[1][3]. A current crowd-implied probability of 3% for a listed player to win suggests the market views the outcome as highly uncertain, likely due to the volatility inherent in golf tournaments where weather, form, and course conditions can shift results overnight.
Historically, similar open tournaments have seen favourites like Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm defy pre-tournament odds, with McIlroy’s past performances at Scottish venues often outpacing his initial pricing[1][2]. Comparable cases show that when top players are eliminated early, markets resolve quickly to “No”, while unlisted winners trigger “Other” outcomes, framing how traders should interpret the 3% probability not as a guarantee but as a reflection of deep book depth driven by funding flows from deposit rails like SEPA and USDC.
Traders should watch for final schedule announcements and player form updates, particularly Scheffler’s recent performances and McIlroy’s fitness, as these dependencies directly influence market traction[3][7]. Recent news from Golf Channel confirms Scheffler as the favourite at +445, with McIlroy and Rahm close behind, highlighting the catalysts that will drive book depth and settlement clarity as the tournament progresses[1].
Methodology
This page compares PGA Tour: Genesis Scottish Open Winner with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
Trade PGA Tour: Genesis Scottish Open Winner on Polymarket Klarna UK
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