Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 100% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Sam Burns | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Bud Cauley | 0% |
| Wyndham Clark | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Max Homa | 0% |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Tom Kim | 0% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% |
| Shane Lowry | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Rory McIlroy | 0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Collin Morikawa | 0% |
| Alexander Noren | 0% |
| JT Poston | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Aaron Rai | 0% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Justin Rose | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Adam Scott | 0% |
| Alex Smalley | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Sepp Straka | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0% |
| Justin Thomas | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The FedEx St. Jude Championship, held annually in Memphis, Tennessee, serves as the opening event of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup playoffs. The 2026 edition will determine which player records the lowest score relative to par after eighteen holes of stroke play. Tiebreaker protocols favour back-nine performance, then eagle count, then birdie count, establishing a clear hierarchy for settlement. The current 0% implied probability suggests minimal market activity or liquidity, typical for niche first-round leader markets where information asymmetry remains high until field announcements and practice-round data emerge.
Historical precedent shows first-round leader markets attract meaningful volume only after field confirmation and weather forecasts materialise. The St. Jude Championship typically draws elite players seeking FedEx Cup positioning; course conditions at TPC Southwind—a par-70 layout averaging 7,100+ yards—reward accuracy off the tee and precision iron play. Recent editions have seen leaders post 65–67 scores, with first-round edges often erased by field depth. Comparable PGA Tour opening-round markets on Polymarket have resolved with book depth correlating directly to deposit availability via Klarna and SEPA rails; markets with sub-£500 liquidity rarely attract traders without friction-free funding access.
Traders should monitor official PGA Tour field announcements (typically six weeks pre-tournament) and weather forecasts for Memphis in August 2026. Deposit friction remains the primary constraint on market traction; USDC on-ramps and Klarna's deferred payment options historically drive participation in low-liquidity sports markets. Course setup reports and practice-round scoring will signal whether consensus tightens around favourites or disperses across the field.
Methodology
This page compares PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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