Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Maverick McNealy | 43% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 41% |
| Corey Conners | 34% |
| Keith Mitchell | 32% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 32% |
| Doug Ghim | 32% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Sam Stevens | 31% |
| Mac Meissner | 31% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Pierceson Coody | 29% |
| Jackson Suber | 28% |
| Max Homa | 28% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 28% |
| Jackson Koivun | 27% |
| Johnny Keefer | 27% |
| Tom Kim | 26% |
| Tony Finau | 26% |
| Michael Brennan | 26% |
| Brian Harman | 26% |
| Gary Woodland | 25% |
| Ben Kohles | 25% |
| Michael Kim | 24% |
| Casey Jarvis | 24% |
| Benjamin James | 23% |
| Davis Thompson | 23% |
| Max Greyserman | 22% |
| Ricky Castillo | 22% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 22% |
| Zac Blair | 22% |
| Kevin Yu | 21% |
| Beau Hossler | 21% |
| Rico Hoey | 21% |
| Zach Bauchou | 21% |
| Steven Fisk | 20% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 20% |
| Lucas Glover | 20% |
| Lee Hodges | 20% |
| Keita Nakajima | 20% |
| Denny McCarthy | 20% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 19% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 19% |
| Max McGreevy | 19% |
| William Mouw | 18% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 18% |
| Andrew Putnam | 18% |
| Seamus Power | 18% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| John Parry | 16% |
| Preston Stout | 16% |
| Jesper Svensson | 16% |
| Matt Kuchar | 16% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 16% |
| Chris Kirk | 16% |
| Austin Smotherman | 16% |
| Tom Hoge | 16% |
| Kevin Roy | 16% |
| Joel Dahmen | 16% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 15% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 15% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 14% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 14% |
| Billy Horschel | 14% |
| A.J. Ewart | 14% |
| Austin Eckroat | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 14% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 13% |
| Garrick Higgo | 13% |
| David Lipsky | 13% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 12% |
| Karl Vilips | 12% |
| Aaron Wise | 12% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 11% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 11% |
| Nick Dunlap | 11% |
| Neal Shipley | 11% |
| David Skinns | 11% |
| Trace Crowe | 11% |
| Lanto Griffin | 11% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 10% |
| Luke Clanton | 10% |
| Mark Hubbard | 10% |
| Chandler Phillips | 10% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 9% |
| Ryder Cowan | 9% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9% |
| Hayden Springer | 9% |
| Adam Hadwin | 9% |
| Harry Higgs | 8% |
| Gordon Sargent | 7% |
| Vince Whaley | 7% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 6% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
Market context
The 3M Open is a full-field PGA Tour event, so a **top 20** finish market is less binary than an outright winner price and is often shaped by depth rather than one favourite’s form. Bookmakers still frame the week around a small cluster of elite names, with Scottie Scheffler and Maverick McNealy short in top-market pricing, while the field itself is large enough that a steady, error-light four rounds can bring fringe contenders into the top 20. That helps explain why a crowd-implied **81% YES** is high: in a regular PGA Tour event, the top 20 includes ties and can be reached by several players if scoring is compressed at the top, which is common on softer, lower-scoring setups. [2][3][5]
For traders, the main catalyst is not just tee-time performance but *funding flow*: when deposits are easy and cheap, more participants can enter early, widening the book and tightening the implied price around consensus; when rails are clunky, depth can thin quickly. The payment angle matters here because Klarna-style instant funding, SEPA transfers, and USDC all reduce friction at different speeds, which can affect how quickly the market absorbs late information. The practical watch-list is field strength, any withdrawal or illness news before the first round, and whether the PGA Tour publishes complete results promptly, because this market resolves from official Tour results and becomes a No if results are not final by the deadline. [2][5]
Methodology
This page compares PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on Polymarket Klarna UK
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