Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 83% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Mexico vs. England - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 93%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Mexico vs. England - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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