Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group F match between Japan and Sweden, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026, is a decisive fixture where Japan aims to top the group while Sweden seeks to advance. This specific market on the exact final score currently holds a crowd-implied probability of 6% for the YES outcome, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a precise result in a high-stakes international game where the combined score is set at 2.5[1].

Historical head-to-head data shows Japan averaging 1.8 points per match against Sweden with a low 0.4 opponent points per game, yet their recent record in the last five encounters includes one win and three losses for Japan[2]. Comparable cases from previous World Cup group stages suggest that exact score markets often carry low liquidity until late, as traders frequently default to broader outcomes like "Any Other Score" when the probability of a specific result falls below 10%, mirroring the 6% traction seen here.

Traders should monitor the confirmed line-ups and any pre-match injury announcements released by FIFA, as these dependencies directly influence the scoring dynamics and book depth[5]. Recent training footage indicates both squads are fully prepared, but the catalyst for significant funding flows will be the deposit and withdrawal rail updates, particularly the integration of Klarna and SEPA for European users and USDC for crypto on-ramps, which drive the capital required to sustain market liquidity[4][6]. The settlement window closing on 25 June 2026 at 23:00:00Z means that any delay in payment processing could impact the final book size before the match concludes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.