Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 45% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 34% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 88%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2310b981%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2310b981%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2310b981%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2310b981%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →