Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 66% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 64% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Vózinha: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 35% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Vózinha: 5+ saves | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 29% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 16% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots | 11% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals | 5% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 89% chance of argentina vs. cabo verde - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
Trade Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →