Market statistics
- Total volume
- $872K
- 24h volume
- $872K
- Liquidity
- $2.5M
- Open interest
- $487K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (11)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
GamerLegion face Liquid in a Counter-Strike lower bracket semifinal at IEM Atlanta on 13 May, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The match is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. Both teams enter from the group stage, where seeding and performance will determine their respective form heading into this elimination fixture.
The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects either exceptional confidence in one outcome or minimal liquidity depth, a pattern common in esports markets with restricted deposit rails. Traders accessing this market through SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, or USDC on-ramps often face settlement delays that compress trading windows, particularly for events scheduled within 48 hours. Historical lower bracket semifinals in Counter-Strike majors show volatile results; upsets occur at roughly 30–35% frequency when the higher-seeded team faces motivated underdogs, suggesting the current odds may not reflect true match uncertainty.
Key catalysts include roster confirmations and player availability announcements, typically released 24–48 hours before group play concludes. Recent IEM Atlanta coverage from HLTV and ESL's official channels will signal any last-minute substitutions or technical issues. Traders should monitor whether either team has played extended series earlier in the tournament, as fatigue affects lower bracket performance. The 7-day cancellation threshold means delays beyond 20 May would trigger 50-50 resolution, a tail risk if venue or broadcast issues emerge. Withdrawal friction on non-USDC rails may suppress late-stage position adjustments.
Methodology
This page compares Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. PolyGram additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like PolyGram add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- PolyGram charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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