Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 88% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 70% |
| Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) | 68% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) | 40% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Chinese Super League clash between Shandong Taishan FC and Yunnan Yukun FC kicks off at 07:35 ET on Friday, 10 July 2026, at Jinan Olympic Sports Center. This fixture has drawn significant attention, with crowd-implied probability sitting at 68% YES for the "More Markets" outcome, reflecting strong book depth driven by recent funding flows into payment rails like Klarna, SEPA, and USDC. Traders depositing via these channels are effectively betting on the liquidity that sustains such market traction.
Historically, Yunnan Yukun has shown a dramatic tendency to overturn deficits against Shandong, including a 3–2 comeback from 2–0 down in the 11th round of the 2025 season [2]. Head-to-head stats reveal Yunnan won two of the last three meetings, while Shandong remains unbeaten at home with a +35% advantage in goals scored [4]. This pattern suggests the 68% probability is not merely speculative but grounded in Yunnan’s proven resilience and Shandong’s home vulnerability, framing the current odds as a rational assessment of past performance.
Key catalysts include the official line-up announcements expected shortly before kick-off and any mid-week injury updates affecting either squad [3]. The match’s outcome may also hinge on referee decisions, given Shandong’s recent 49.1% possession average and 3.7 corners per game [7]. As reported by theScore, live odds and stats will be updated throughout the fixture, offering traders real-time data to align with on-ramp friction and withdrawal timing [6]. These dependencies underscore the importance of monitoring pre-match developments for optimal entry points.
Methodology
This page compares Shandong Taishan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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