Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Unai Simón | 100% |
| Mike Maignan | 0% |
| Emiliano Martínez | 0% |
| Alisson Becker | 0% |
| Jordan Pickford | 0% |
| Diogo Costa | 0% |
| David Raya | 0% |
| Manuel Neuer | 0% |
| Oliver Baumann | 0% |
| Thibaut Courtois | 0% |
| Ederson | 0% |
| Bart Verbruggen | 0% |
| Matt Freese | 0% |
| Senne Lammens | 0% |
| Joan García | 0% |
| Guillermo Ochoa | 0% |
| Gregor Kobel | 0% |
| Yassine Bounou | 0% |
| Ørjan Nyland | 0% |
| Sergio Rochet | 0% |
| Player A | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Glove award will recognise the tournament’s best goalkeeper, a prize decided by official FIFA voting rather than pure statistical metrics like goals conceded. With the settlement window closing on 20 July 2026, the market currently shows a 0% implied probability for any specific winner, reflecting the event’s pre-tournament status where no matches have been played to generate performance data.
Historically, pre-tournament Golden Glove markets remain dormant until the first competitive fixtures, as seen in 2022 when Emi Martínez’s odds only solidified after Argentina’s opening wins. Current betting books list Unai Simón and Mike Maignan as early favourites, yet the 0% crowd probability here signals that liquidity has not yet migrated from on-ramp friction; traders are likely waiting to deposit via Klarna or SEPA before committing capital once the tournament kicks off, delaying book depth formation.
Key catalysts include the official squad announcements and the tournament start date, which will trigger immediate price discovery. Traders should monitor FIFA’s final goalkeeper rankings released in late May 2026, which often shift early market sentiment, and watch for any injury news involving top contenders like Alisson or Courtois. Until the first whistle, funding flows into USDC rails will dictate when the book gains sufficient depth to move beyond the current null probability.
Methodology
This page compares World Cup: Golden Glove Winner with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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