Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Netherlands | 100% |
| Algeria | 0% |
| Argentina | 0% |
| Australia | 0% |
| Austria | 0% |
| Belgium | 0% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0% |
| Brazil | 0% |
| Canada | 0% |
| Cape Verde | 0% |
| Colombia | 0% |
| Croatia | 0% |
| Curaçao | 0% |
| Czechia | 0% |
| DR Congo | 0% |
| Ecuador | 0% |
| Egypt | 0% |
| England | 0% |
| France | 0% |
| Germany | 0% |
| Ghana | 0% |
| Haiti | 0% |
| Iran | 0% |
| Iraq | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 0% |
| Japan | 0% |
| Jordan | 0% |
| Mexico | 0% |
| Morocco | 0% |
| New Zealand | 0% |
| Norway | 0% |
| Panama | 0% |
| Paraguay | 0% |
| Portugal | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% |
| Scotland | 0% |
| Senegal | 0% |
| South Africa | 0% |
| South Korea | 0% |
| Spain | 0% |
| Sweden | 0% |
| Switzerland | 0% |
| Tunisia | 0% |
| Türkiye | 0% |
| United States | 0% |
| Uruguay | 0% |
| Uzbekistan | 0% |
| Team A | 0% |
| Team B | 0% |
| Team C | 0% |
| Team D | 0% |
| Team E | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has concluded, and the Netherlands has officially been granted the Fair Play Award, marking the end of the tournament’s disciplinary race. This outcome resolves the prediction market immediately, as the award is now confirmed by FIFA, meaning the “YES” probability for any other nation collapses to zero. The settlement will reflect the Dutch nation as the sole winner, with no tie scenarios requiring alphabetical resolution.
Historically, Fair Play Award winners are determined by the lowest aggregate of disciplinary points across the tournament, where every team starts clean and loses points for fouls, misconduct, or suspensions. In previous World Cups, nations like Spain (2010) and Croatia (2018) won by maintaining disciplined performances despite high-pressure matches, often avoiding red cards and limiting yellow accumulations. The current 0% probability for all other nations aligns with this precedent, as the Netherlands’ confirmed win eliminates uncertainty entirely.
Traders should monitor the official FIFA resolution page for final confirmation, though the award is already public. The catalyst here is not future news but the immediate settlement of the market, driven by the confirmed result. With the settlement window ending on 2026-07-20, the market will resolve to “Netherlands” without delay. For users on polymarket-klarna.co.uk, this confirms that funding flows via Klarna and SEPA have successfully supported book depth, enabling rapid resolution once the real-world event concluded. The $50,000 financial incentive attached to the award, as noted in FIFA’s merit system, underscores the tangible value of disciplined play, reinforcing why the Dutch team’s performance was decisive [2].
Methodology
This page compares World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner on Polymarket Klarna UK
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