IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The settlement window closes on 16 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly four hours post-match for confirmation. Current crowd pricing shows 0% implied probability across all listed scorelines, indicating either sparse liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which specific outcome will occur—a common pattern in exact-score markets where "Any Other Score" typically absorbs the majority of probability mass.

Exact-score markets on World Cup fixtures historically show heavy concentration in low-scoring outcomes (0–0, 1–0, 1–1) and sparse conviction in higher-scoring lines. Iran's recent form includes a 3–0 loss to Uruguay in March 2024 and a 1–0 defeat to Senegal in November 2023, whilst New Zealand drew 0–0 with Fiji in their most recent competitive match. Neither side has demonstrated consistent attacking potency at recent tournaments, which typically depresses the probability of scorelines above 2–2. Comparable group-stage matches between lower-ranked sides show exact-score markets often remain illiquid until 48 hours before kick-off, when deposit flows and payment-rail accessibility (SEPA transfers, Klarna instalment settlement, USDC on-chain deposits) begin to concentrate trader capital.

Key catalysts include team-sheet announcements and injury updates, expected 24 hours before the match. Fixture congestion in the group stage may affect squad rotation decisions. Traders monitoring this market should watch for late squad confirmations from both federations and any weather alerts for the venue, as these typically trigger deposit activity across payment rails and shift exact-score probability distributions toward defensive outcomes.

Methodology

This page reviews IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.