Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Egypt and IR Iran, set for 27 June 2026 at Seattle Stadium, is the real-world event driving the "Exact Score" prediction market. With a current crowd-implied probability of 16% for a specific outcome, traders are weighing whether the book depth reflects genuine insight or merely on-ramp friction from deposit fees and withdrawal rails like SEPA and USDC. The market’s traction hinges on funding flows that sustain liquidity, particularly as Klarna and SEPA users navigate the platform’s payment infrastructure.

Historically, tight World Cup group games between Egypt and Iran often end in draws or low-scoring affairs, mirroring the Opta supercomputer’s simulation where a draw occurred in 31.3% of cases and Egypt won in 44.1% [1]. Iran’s seven World Cup appearances have yet to yield a group-stage exit, suggesting defensive resilience [7]. This context frames the 16% probability as plausible but not guaranteed, given Egypt’s clinical attacking edge versus Iran’s legendary defence [6].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and referee Szymon Marciniak’s disciplinary tendencies, as his strict style could influence goal counts [5]. Recent odds show a strong under-2.5 goals lean, with -160 pricing, indicating market expectations of a low-scoring contest [2]. Any late announcement regarding player fitness or tactical shifts, such as Egypt’s training session ahead of the match [4], could alter the exact score probability and impact book depth driven by payment flows.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.