Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
54% | 46% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
54% | 46% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Anthropic | 54% |
| SpaceX | 46% |
| xAI | 26% |
| OpenAI | 1% |
| ByteDance | 0% |
| Stripe | 0% |
| Databricks | 0% |
| SHEIN | 0% |
| Waymo | 0% |
| Revolut | 0% |
| Discord | 0% |
| Perplexity AI | 0% |
| Kraken | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Placeholder A | 0% |
| Placeholder B | 0% |
| Placeholder C | 0% |
| Placeholder D | 0% |
| Placeholder E | 0% |
| Placeholder F | 0% |
| Placeholder G | 0% |
| Placeholder H | 0% |
| Placeholder I | 0% |
| Placeholder J | 0% |
| Placeholder K | 0% |
| Placeholder L | 0% |
| Placeholder M | 0% |
| Placeholder N | 0% |
| Placeholder O | 0% |
| Placeholder P | 0% |
| Placeholder Q | 0% |
| Placeholder R | 0% |
| Placeholder S | 0% |
| Placeholder T | 0% |
| Placeholder U | 0% |
| Placeholder V | 0% |
| Placeholder W | 0% |
| Placeholder X | 0% |
| Placeholder Y | 0% |
| Placeholder Z | 0% |
| Placeholder AA | 0% |
| Placeholder AB | 0% |
| Placeholder AC | 0% |
| Placeholder AD | 0% |
| Placeholder AE | 0% |
| Placeholder AF | 0% |
| Placeholder AG | 0% |
| Placeholder AH | 0% |
| Placeholder AI | 0% |
| Placeholder AJ | 0% |
| Placeholder AK | 0% |
| Placeholder AL | 0% |
| Placeholder AM | 0% |
| Placeholder AN | 0% |
| Placeholder AO | 0% |
| Placeholder AP | 0% |
| Placeholder AQ | 0% |
| Placeholder AR | 0% |
| Placeholder AS | 0% |
| Placeholder AT | 0% |
| Placeholder AU | 0% |
| Placeholder AV | 0% |
| Placeholder AW | 0% |
| Placeholder AX | 0% |
| Placeholder AY | 0% |
| Placeholder AZ | 0% |
| Placeholder BA | 0% |
| Placeholder BB | 0% |
| Placeholder BC | 0% |
| Placeholder BD | 0% |
| Placeholder BE | 0% |
| Placeholder BF | 0% |
| Placeholder BG | 0% |
| Placeholder BH | 0% |
Market context
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 41% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
This page compares Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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