Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate still has not passed the reconciliation package tied to immigration enforcement funding, and the deadline at the end of May is now close. The latest committee product was a roughly $72 billion package, with CBO scoring the Senate committees’ recommendations at about $72 billion in additional deficit over ten years, but the measure still needs floor action and clearance of procedural steps before it can become law. That leaves the market sitting on a simple question of timing rather than policy: whether the chamber can complete passage before the settlement window closes.

Historically, these markets tend to sit near zero until leaders lock in a floor schedule, because reconciliation depends on committee text, a formal Budget Committee stitch-up, and then a Senate vote without filibuster but still vulnerable to amendment fights and last-minute procedural delay. In this case, Senate Republicans already adopted the budget resolution in April, but the House and Senate have had to align on a common path, and the price of failure is often a missed calendar rather than a failed coalition.

The main catalysts are scheduling announcements from leadership, any confirmation that the text is ready for floor consideration, and whether the House side stays on track with the same framework. Ballotpedia reported on 7 May that the Senate committees had released the first version of the package and that President Trump wanted passage before 1 June, while CBO published scores showing the size of the proposed direct appropriations. For a market trading through card deposits, SEPA, Klarna, or USDC, this is the sort of event-driven book that can remain thin until a concrete vote date or official order of business creates fresh funding flow and sharper depth.

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Methodology

This page reviews Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.