Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hezbollah's potential disarmament by March 2026 remains extraordinarily unlikely given the organisation's foundational identity as an armed resistance movement. The Lebanese Shia militant group has maintained its military apparatus as central to its political legitimacy and regional strategy since its 1985 founding, integrating weapons stockpiles into state governance structures following the 2016 government accord. Any official announcement of disarmament would represent a fundamental strategic reversal, requiring either catastrophic military defeat, comprehensive international agreement, or internal leadership collapse—none of which currently appear probable within the 15-month window.

Historical precedent offers limited encouragement for this resolution. The 2006 ceasefire and subsequent UN Resolution 1701 called for Hezbollah's disarmament but produced no substantive weapons reduction; the organisation instead consolidated its arsenal. The 2008 Doha Agreement temporarily reduced tensions but did not trigger disarmament commitments. Lebanon's ongoing economic collapse and political paralysis have weakened state capacity to enforce weapons restrictions rather than creating conditions for voluntary surrender.

Traders monitoring this market should track Israeli military operations, Lebanese government stability, and statements from Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem or successor leadership. Recent escalations in 2024 have reinforced the group's military posture rather than signalling negotiation openness. Withdrawal from Lebanon's political system or explicit leadership succession would be necessary preconditions, neither currently materialising. The 0% implied probability reflects rational assessment of structural barriers rather than market dysfunction.

Methodology

This page reviews Will Hezbollah disarm by...? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.