Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The next real-world trigger is a formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting in which a named representative actually appears in an official capacity. Because the market only pays if the listed individual attends, the key distinction is between direct attendance and indirect contact through mediators such as Oman, Qatar, or other interlocutors. The crowd-implied 0% YES suggests traders currently see no credible public path to a face-to-face or otherwise qualifying appearance before the June 30 deadline.

That reading fits the history of US-Iran contacts, which have been rare, narrow and often indirect since the countries cut formal diplomatic relations in 1980.[2] Recent precedent cuts both ways: high-level meetings were held in Oman on 12 April 2025, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and another round of indirect talks took place in Muscat on 6 February 2026.[1][2] Those examples show that engagement is possible, but also that the usual format is mediated rather than a broad diplomatic summit, which limits the pool of attendees who would satisfy this market.

For traders, the main catalysts are any fresh announcement from the State Department, Iran’s foreign ministry, or Omani or Qatari mediators, plus whether nuclear or sanctions talks are reactivated on a fixed schedule.[1][2] Market depth will also track funding frictions: easier on-ramps such as card or Klarna-style deposits and lower-cost withdrawal rails like SEPA or USDC can widen participation quickly, while slower funding cycles tend to suppress volume and keep the book thin until a concrete meeting date is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.