Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 80% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 13% |
| María Corina Machado | 2% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 1% |
| No Head of State | 1% |
| Edmundo González | 0% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0% |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0% |
| Donald Trump | 0% |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0% |
| Marco Rubio | 0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% |
| Evan Pettus | 0% |
| Frank Donovan | 0% |
| Dan Caine | 0% |
| Richard Grenell | 0% |
| Leader 1 | 0% |
| Leader 2 | 0% |
| Leader 3 | 0% |
| Leader 4 | 0% |
| Leader 5 | 0% |
| Leader 6 | 0% |
| Leader 7 | 0% |
| Leader 8 | 0% |
| Leader 9 | 0% |
| Leader 10 | 0% |
| Leader 11 | 0% |
| Leader 12 | 0% |
| Leader 13 | 0% |
| Leader 14 | 0% |
| Leader 15 | 0% |
| Leader 16 | 0% |
| Leader 17 | 0% |
| Leader 18 | 0% |
| Leader 19 | 0% |
| Leader 20 | 0% |
| Leader 21 | 0% |
| Leader 22 | 0% |
| Leader 23 | 0% |
| Leader 24 | 0% |
| Leader 25 | 0% |
| Leader 26 | 0% |
| Leader 27 | 0% |
| Leader 28 | 0% |
| Leader 29 | 0% |
| Leader 30 | 0% |
| Leader 31 | 0% |
| Leader 32 | 0% |
| Leader 33 | 0% |
| Leader 34 | 0% |
| Leader 35 | 0% |
| Leader 36 | 0% |
| Leader 37 | 0% |
| Leader 38 | 0% |
| Leader 39 | 0% |
| Leader 40 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, venezuela leader end of 2026? stands at 80% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "offic…
Methodology
This page compares Venezuela leader end of 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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