Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

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Market context

Donald Trump's second term began in January 2025 with tariffs on China already in place from his first administration, including the Section 301 measures imposed in 2018–2019 covering roughly $370bn in annual Chinese imports. The question centres on whether Trump or his administration will publicly announce a reversal, reduction, or suspension of any of these levies by late May 2026. The market's 0% implied probability reflects the current trajectory: Trump has consistently campaigned on maintaining or expanding tariff pressure on China as a negotiating tool and domestic policy priority, with no signals of rollback in the opening months of his second term.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Trump's first term saw tariffs escalate rather than retreat; negotiations with China in 2020 produced the Phase One trade deal but no tariff reductions. The Biden administration maintained Trump-era tariffs throughout 2021–2024, treating them as bipartisan consensus. Any announcement of Chinese tariff relief would represent a significant policy reversal and would likely trigger immediate market reaction across equities, commodities, and currency pairs—particularly given the stakes for US manufacturers and consumer goods pricing.

Traders should monitor quarterly earnings calls from multinational corporations, statements from the US Trade Representative's office, and any formal bilateral meetings between Trump and Chinese leadership. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg has emphasised Trump's focus on expanding rather than narrowing tariff scope, particularly around critical minerals and semiconductors. Deposit and withdrawal flows on prediction platforms typically spike around major trade announcements; liquidity on this market will likely remain thin until concrete negotiation signals emerge or a summit date is formally scheduled.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.