Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Trump administration has already published an initial tranche of declassified UAP material, including files and imagery on a new public portal, so the remaining question is whether further previously unreleased records appear before year-end. The market is therefore less about a one-off announcement than about whether the rolling release programme continues and whether the material qualifies as files that were not previously public.

The 100% implied probability reflects that the event has effectively begun, but settlement still depends on additional declassified files being released by 31 December 2026. Past transparency drives on sensitive government subjects often start with a headline release and then move in batches as agencies finish review, redact security-sensitive details, and clear archives for public posting. That creates a clearer path than markets on purely speculative disclosures, but it also means the precise scope matters: public repetition of already released items would not necessarily satisfy the terms.

Traders should watch official War Department and ODNI channels, plus any White House or Truth Social statements, for tranche releases and schedules. The key dependency is the pace of inter-agency review, which the department says is ongoing and rolling, with new materials posted every few weeks. Liquidity in the book is likely to be driven by funding frictions as much as conviction: low-fee deposits, faster rails such as SEPA or card options like Klarna, and easy withdrawals in USDC can bring in more retail flow and deepen the market, while slower or costlier on-ramps tend to keep order books thin.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.