Market statistics
- Total volume
- $23.3M
- 24h volume
- $1.7M
- Liquidity
- $362K
- Open interest
- $2.6M
- Comments
- 1432
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (9)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Keir Starmer became Prime Minister in July 2024 following Labour's general election victory. This market tests whether he remains in post through 2025, with resolution triggered by any announcement of resignation or removal before year-end, regardless of effective date. The 0% implied probability reflects the absence of imminent constitutional crisis or formal removal mechanisms in UK parliamentary practice.
British Prime Ministers typically leave office through general election defeat, voluntary resignation, or loss of Commons confidence. The last mid-term removal occurred in 1990 when Margaret Thatcher faced backbench rebellion over the poll tax; before that, Neville Chamberlain departed in 1940 amid wartime pressure. Starmer commands a substantial Commons majority and faces no formal leadership challenge process within Labour. Historical precedent suggests departure mid-parliament requires either extraordinary party fracture or personal decision—both currently absent from reporting.
Traders monitoring this market should track several dependencies: Labour's standing in monthly polling, any major Commons rebellions on flagship legislation, and announcements regarding health or personal circumstances. The Budget scheduled for March 2025 and any subsequent spending reviews represent key legislative moments where backbench dissent could surface. Media coverage of internal party tensions, particularly around economic policy or public service reform, would signal shifting pressure. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers affects position sizing for retail traders tracking longer-dated political risk, whilst USDC on-ramps enable faster entry if catalysts emerge unexpectedly.
Wikipedia Context
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Mental As AnythingMental As Anything is an Australian new wave and pop rock band that formed in Sydney in 1976. Its most popular line-up was Martin Plaza on vocals and guitar; Reg Mombassa on lead guitar and vocals; his brother Peter "Yoga Dog" O'Doherty on bass guitar and vocals; Wayne de Lisle on drums; and Andrew "Greedy" Smith on vocals, keyboards and harmonica. The group
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Alan O'DayAlan Earle O'Day was an American singer-songwriter, best known for writing and singing "Undercover Angel," a million-selling Gold-certified American No. 1 hit in 1977. He also wrote songs for many other notable performers, such as 1974's Helen Reddy No. 1 hit "Angie Baby" and "Rock and Roll Heaven". In the 1980s he moved from pop music to television, co-writ
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State Route 99 tunnelThe State Route 99 tunnel, also known as the Alaskan Way Viaduct replacement tunnel, is a bored highway tunnel in the city of Seattle, Washington, United States. The 2-mile (3.2 km), double-decker tunnel carries a section of State Route 99 (SR 99) under Downtown Seattle from SoDo in the south to South Lake Union in the north.
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State Route 74 (New York–Vermont)New York State Route 74 (NY 74) and Vermont Route 74 (VT 74) are state highways in the northeastern United States, connected by one of the last remaining cable ferries in North America. Together they extend for 34 miles (55 km) through Essex County, New York, and Addison County, Vermont. NY 74 begins at exit 28 off Interstate 87 (I-87) in the hamlet of Sever
Methodology
This page compares Starmer out by...? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. PolyGram additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like PolyGram add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on PolyGram?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and PolyGram converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by PolyGram — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). PolyGram retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Starmer out by...? on PolyGram
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