Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next government will be formed after the October 2026 Knesset election, and the market resolves only when a **new prime minister is formally sworn in**, not when a caretaker or interim figure is announced. That distinction matters because coalition talks in Israel can stretch beyond polling day, so the contract is really pricing the post-election bargaining process as much as the vote itself.[4][16]

The current 35% crowd-implied probability sits in a field that traders have treated as a three-way contest between Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett, with recent reporting describing Eizenkot as a leading challenger and market consensus leaning towards him in some venues.[1][2][8] Comparable Israeli elections show why: leadership perceptions can move faster than party labels, and late coalition arithmetic has repeatedly decided who actually receives the mandate to govern. Netanyahu is still the incumbent and a durable benchmark for the book, but the market is effectively asking which bloc can convert votes into a sworn-in cabinet.[10][17]

For traders, the main catalysts are the formal election timetable, coalition announcements, and any change to the vote date if an early election is called. Bloomberg reported the Knesset adjourned on 17 July and that 27 October 2026 is the latest legal date, which anchors the timing risk into the autumn.[4] In funding terms, this kind of market tends to deepen when low-friction rails are available: Klarna on-ramp, SEPA transfers and USDC deposits can bring in smaller, faster entries, while easy withdrawal options help recycle capital back into the book. That flow matters because election markets usually tighten only when fresh deposits keep arriving around new polls, endorsements and coalition signals.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).