U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States is currently offering Ukraine a proposed 15-year security guarantee as part of a peace framework, yet the market implies zero chance of a formal, binding commitment by June 30. This offer remains conditional and vague, lacking the unequivocal Article 5-style mutual defence language required for the market to resolve "Yes". Historical precedents, such as the 2026 Geneva meetings where negotiations stalled on security terms, and expert analysis from the Brookings Institution noting Trump’s scepticism of NATO guarantees, frame why the crowd-implied probability sits at 0%. Credible, unconditional US pledges from this administration are not viewed as being on the table, with analysts suggesting vague pledges are less valuable than Ukraine building its own deterrent forces.

Traders must monitor the finalisation of the peace deal, specifically whether the Trump administration converts the proposed 15-year offer into a legally binding obligation with NATO-equivalent language before the settlement window closes. Key catalysts include the June deadline for the peace deal announced by Zelenskyy and any official statements confirming the US commitment to defend Ukraine directly. Recent reports from AP News confirm the US proposal but highlight that specifics remain undisclosed and Russia has rejected the plan, indicating significant friction. The market’s traction is directly tied to funding flows; as deposit fees and withdrawal rails like Klarna and SEPA become more efficient, book depth increases, allowing traders to better price the low probability of a formal guarantee emerging from these stalled negotiations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.