Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still matters because the market resolves on whether IMF Portwatch prints a 7-day moving average of **60 or more** transit calls before 31 December 2026, and the strait has remained well below that benchmark through much of 2026. Reuters reported on 9 April that traffic was running at **well below 10% of normal volumes**, with only **seven ships** passing in 24 hours versus about **140 normally**[13]. Polymarket currently prices the outcome at **56% Yes**, slightly below the broader market tone seen elsewhere, which suggests traders are still paying up for a normalisation narrative but are not treating it as a clean-up trade[4][1].

Historical parallels favour reading this as a *slow reversion* market rather than a binary ceasefire bet. Reporting in June described ships “beginning to trickle through” after a peace deal, but even then analysts warned that clearing backlog and restoring commercial routines could take **weeks to months** rather than days[11]. That matters for market depth: the contract can only settle from IMF Portwatch prints, so funding flows are likely to cluster around traders comfortable with simple on-ramp routes and quick exits — the sort of book that tends to deepen when deposits are frictionless and withdrawals are available on rails such as **SEPA**, **Klarna**, or **USDC** rather than slow banking paths.

The main catalyst to watch is any concrete security or diplomatic shift that changes insurer and carrier behaviour before year-end. IMF Portwatch data updates are decisive, but traders will also react to ceasefire enforcement, naval escort announcements, sanctions relief, or evidence that carriers are restoring scheduled transits; recent coverage has noted that traffic remains vulnerable to renewed fighting and to security warnings from Iran and regional powers[20][9]. If the move in physical shipping is gradual, the market can stay pinned near current odds for months and then reprice quickly on a single qualifying 7-day average print.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).