Starmer out by 2025?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer has served as Prime Minister since Labour's July 2024 election victory. This market tests whether he remains in post through the end of 2025, with any announcement of his departure—whether resignation or removal—triggering immediate settlement to Yes, regardless of the effective date. The 0% crowd probability reflects the stability of his position and the absence of imminent constitutional or parliamentary pressure.

UK Prime Ministers have historically faced removal or forced resignation under specific conditions: loss of Commons confidence (as with Liz Truss in September 2022 after 49 days), serious scandal, or internal party revolt. Starmer commands a 163-seat majority, substantially larger than Truss's position. No sitting PM with a working majority of this size has been ousted mid-term in the modern era. Comparisons to Boris Johnson's 2022 exit require either sustained backbench defections or a major personal or governance crisis—neither currently evident in reporting.

Traders monitoring this market should track parliamentary rebellions on key legislation, particularly around welfare reform and fiscal policy scheduled for spring 2025, alongside any developments in ongoing investigations affecting government figures. The Budget implementation and autumn spending reviews represent pressure points where coalition discipline could fracture. Recent polling from January 2025 shows Labour trailing the Conservatives, but electoral disadvantage alone has not triggered PM changes absent parliamentary arithmetic shifts. Deposit flexibility through Klarna and SEPA transfers allows traders to size positions without friction, though the 0% probability suggests limited liquidity depth until material catalysts emerge.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.