Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
12% | 88% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
12% | 88% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| UNRWA | 12% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 11% |
| Donald Trump | 8% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 5% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 4% |
| Greta Thunberg | 2% |
| International Court of Justice | 2% |
| Narendra Modi | 2% |
| Julian Assange | 1% |
| Elon Musk | 1% |
| António Guterres | 1% |
| Khaled Mashal | 1% |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 1% |
| Xi Jinping | 1% |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1% |
| Charlie Kirk | 1% |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 1% |
| Vladimir Putin | 0% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% |
| Person A | 0% |
| Person B | 0% |
| Person C | 0% |
| Person D | 0% |
| Person E | 0% |
| Person F | 0% |
| Person G | 0% |
| Person H | 0% |
| Person I | 0% |
| Person J | 0% |
| Person K | 0% |
| Person L | 0% |
| Person M | 0% |
| Person N | 0% |
| Person O | 0% |
| Person P | 0% |
| Person Q | 0% |
| Person R | 0% |
| Person S | 0% |
| Person T | 0% |
| Person U | 0% |
| Person V | 0% |
| Person W | 0% |
| Person X | 0% |
| Person Y | 0% |
| Person Z | 0% |
| Person AA | 0% |
| Person AB | 0% |
| Person AC | 0% |
| Person AD | 0% |
| Person AE | 0% |
| Person AF | 0% |
| Person AG | 0% |
| Person AH | 0% |
| Person AI | 0% |
| Person AJ | 0% |
| Person AK | 0% |
| Person AL | 0% |
| Person AM | 0% |
| Person AN | 0% |
| Person AO | 0% |
| Person AP | 0% |
| Person AQ | 0% |
| Person AR | 0% |
| Person AS | 0% |
| Person AT | 0% |
| Person AU | 0% |
| Person AV | 0% |
| Person AW | 0% |
| Person AX | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — current market-implied probability: 12%. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, th…
Methodology
This page compares Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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