Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Market context

A permanent removal from office, not a resignation or election loss, is the sole real-world event that resolves this market. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for "Yes", the market effectively treats the current slate of leaders as secure until the settlement window closes in late 2026. This zero-probability stance mirrors how traders priced Viktor Orbán’s position before his historic April 2026 defeat to Péter Magyar, where the "Yes" outcome only surged once the removal was confirmed as permanent rather than provisional[2].

Historical precedents like Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent impeachment suspension demonstrate why temporary power transfers do not count, reinforcing the market’s caution against assigning odds to leaders facing only provisional threats[3]. Traders should watch for formal announcements of permanent removals, scheduled departures following election losses that result in immediate office vacancy, or legal terminations that end tenure entirely. Recent polling data suggests no credible near-term threats to leaders like Trump, Putin, or Xi, with all showing 0% probability of removal before 2027[2].

The market’s traction hinges on funding flows that drive book depth, much like deposit friction on payment rails such as Klarna or SEPA affects user participation. As long as no leader faces a credible permanent removal threat, the 0% probability will persist, reflecting the absence of actionable catalysts. Traders monitoring this space should focus on official government statements confirming permanent office loss, as these are the only events that trigger resolution[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.