Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
16% | 84% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
16% | 84% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 180-199 | 16% |
| 120-139 | 11% |
| 140-159 | 11% |
| 160-179 | 11% |
| 200-219 | 11% |
| 100-119 | 8% |
| 220-239 | 8% |
| 240-259 | 6% |
| 260-279 | 5% |
| 80-99 | 4% |
| 280-299 | 3% |
| 300-319 | 2% |
| 320-339 | 1% |
| <20 | 0% |
| 20-39 | 0% |
| 40-59 | 0% |
| 60-79 | 0% |
| 340-359 | 0% |
| 360-379 | 0% |
| 380-399 | 0% |
| 400-419 | 0% |
| 420-439 | 0% |
| 440-459 | 0% |
| 460-479 | 0% |
| 480-499 | 0% |
| 500+ | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 16% chance of elon musk # tweets july 10 - july 17, 2026?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 10 12:00 PM ET to July 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market,…
Methodology
This page compares Elon Musk # tweets July 10 - July 17, 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Elon Musk # tweets July 10 - July 17, 2026? on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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