Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods, the professional golfer, has no known federal criminal conviction or outstanding legal jeopardy that would make him a candidate for presidential clemency. Woods faced a 2017 DUI arrest in Florida on prescription medication charges, which resulted in a plea agreement and completion of a diversion programme rather than conviction. A pardon, commutation, or reprieve typically addresses individuals with federal convictions, active sentences, or pending federal charges—none of which apply to Woods. The 1% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that such an action would be extraordinary and without precedent in modern presidential practice.

Presidential pardons have historically targeted political allies, family members, or individuals whose cases gained public attention through media campaigns or legal advocacy. Trump's 2020–2021 pardon authority resulted in 143 grants, including high-profile cases like Roger Stone and Paul Manafort, alongside lesser-known figures. Woods has neither sought nor publicly advocated for federal clemency, and no credible reporting suggests Trump has considered such action. The absence of any federal legal exposure makes this scenario dependent entirely on an unprecedented presidential decision to pardon someone without criminal jeopardy.

Traders monitoring this market should track any unexpected federal charges against Woods or public statements from Trump's administration regarding clemency for the golfer. The settlement window extends to June 2026, covering Trump's second term if he remains in office. Liquidity on this market reflects its low probability; deposit methods via Klarna and SEPA transfers remain available for traders seeking exposure to extreme-tail outcomes, though the book depth typically remains thin on sub-2% probabilities.

Methodology

We track Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.