GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly released a model explicitly named GPT-6, and the most recent widely discussed launch that had been expected to fill that slot arrived instead as GPT-5.5 in April 2026. That matters for this market because the settlement condition is narrow: it needs a public, general-access release by 31 December 2025, not a private preview, internal test, or renamed successor. Reports around the April 2026 launch note that the model codenamed “Spud” shipped as GPT-5.5, while earlier write-ups had still been treating it as the likely path to GPT-6.[1][12]

The historical frame is that OpenAI’s numbered-model cadence has often slipped behind speculation, and the market has already absorbed one miss where a model expected by some watchers to be GPT-6 became GPT-5.5 instead. Comparable cases show how quickly naming can change while access stays constrained: a closed beta or API-only preview would not satisfy this contract, whereas broad ChatGPT availability or open sign-ups would. With crowd-implied probability at 0%, the book is pricing in no public GPT-6 launch inside the settlement window, which is consistent with sources saying there was no official GPT-6 date and no public API endpoint under that name earlier in 2026.[10][13][16]

A trader should watch for three catalysts: a formal OpenAI model announcement, any published rollout schedule, and whether access is tied to paid tiers, waitlists, or open availability. Payment and on-ramp frictions matter here because markets only deepen when users can fund quickly and cheaply; smoother deposits, lower fees, and easier withdrawal rails such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC tend to support tighter spreads and more active positioning. Recent coverage also suggests the next real signal would be a public launch note or release entry from OpenAI rather than speculation, so any official update before year-end would be the clearest repricing trigger.[11][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares GPT-6 released by…? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.